Since we entered the information industry, we have gone step by step from price tracking, to production tracking, to production scheduling tracking, and finally to price prediction. It took us more than ten years, and we have achieved some results. I can share some experiences and listen to them.

From a single product, there are many differences in price. For bulk commodities with low commodity value, prices vary between different cities, and the quoted price can often differ by several hundred yuan/ton, which is roughly the difference in shipping costs, such as steel. Due to the high unit value of the battery industry, which is often tens of thousands of yuan/ton, freight is generally not involved. However, because products are highly specific and do not fully possess commodity attributes, the price reference system will become more diverse.

The first is the website price

From the earliest GGII, to Asian Metal, then to CIPAS, ICC, SMM, and in the past two years, Mysteel, Fubao, etc., there are many domestic price information websites, and the categories are quite detailed. According to our experience, from the perspective of protecting customers, the website quotation must be slightly higher than the actual transaction price. How high it is depends on the transparency of the product price. In the lithium battery industry, it is normal to be 3-5 points higher.

The second is the trader price

There are still quite a few traders of battery materials. Except for some small categories such as PVDF and PEG that require traders to turn over, the core trader group is concentrated in lithium carbonate.

From a volume perspective, most of the trading volume of lithium carbonate is concentrated in the long-term cooperation between lithium salt factory - cathode factory or lithium salt factory - battery factory. Small batches are circulated in the market and transferred through traders. make a deal. Although the transaction volume of this part of lithium carbonate is small, the price rises and falls frequently and is highly sensitive. The transaction price on that day has become a leading indicator of the price of lithium carbonate and has attracted widespread attention.

At present, the quotation system of a group of traders headed by Shanghai Ciwen has gradually gained influence and become the benchmark for lithium carbonate prices.

Let’s look at futures prices

From the early Wuxi market to the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, although the lithium carbonate futures contract has had twists and turns, it has finally entered the right track.

If you continue to track spot and futures prices, you will find that the two have a fairly strong correlation. Even the extremely small trading volume of the Wuxi market that year still had a strong guiding effect on spot prices.

Since the listing of Guangzhou Futures Exchange, because LC2401 is far away from the delivery month, it has always been "incompatible" with the spot price. On the contrary, the recent month contract price in Wuxi is closer to the spot price. However, due to its large trading volume and strong guiding role, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange contract almost led the expectations of the spot. From July to October, it almost led every round of rising and falling trends in the spot. However, what is a bit surprising is that since late October, spot prices have gone out of an independent market due to too weak demand, and they have only followed the decline in futures rather than rising.

Finally, there is the settlement price. Both upstream and downstream parties have their own settlement methods according to the contract, whether it is discounts or sharing, there are various methods, so I won’t go into details.

How to make price prediction

The overall feeling is that in the short term, it depends on mentality, in the medium term, it depends on demand and production, and in the long term, it depends on the basic supply and demand side.

The long-term supply and demand side is relatively easy to measure. In addition to consulting institutions, the participation of brokerage institutions and futures research departments has further consolidated the data basis of supply and demand, which has been recognized by the entire market.

We will keep more track of demand scheduling in the medium term. As the market size expands, the difficulty of tracking production schedules increases, and our tracking methods are constantly being updated in an effort to be perfect.

Short-term mentality is important and subtle. Human thoughts are the most difficult to guess. They have their own thoughts and judgments, and they are constantly harassed by new content. In this era of information explosion and excess, in today's chaotic world of "small compositions", under extreme circumstances, a person's judgment on the rise and fall of a day can change several times: this phenomenon has become commonplace.

We have found that when the views of the mainstream group gradually converge, short-term prices will move in this direction. So how do you know what the mainstream view is? Make more phone calls and chat with peers and upstream and downstream friends: know yourself and your enemy, and you will never be in danger.

Conclusion

In fact, there is much more that can be said about price prediction, and it is difficult to do all of it at once.

For researchers, from price collection to price prediction, there are countless processes of "prediction---slapping---reprediction" in between. Keep a big heart and thick skin first, and then push yourself to work harder.

Let’s encourage each other!